Introduction
The most tormenting question while making an investment choice is: How to evaluate the accurate value of a stock?
Most people just use the current stock price, also known as market price, as a guide to evaluating a stock’s price.
But, this price is subject to the whims and fancies of the market.
Thus, calculating the stock’s intrinsic value of a share is another option.
A stock’s genuine value is its intrinsic value of a share, and it is the most authentic parameter used to find out the value of a stock.
But, in order to use this metric effectively, we must first understand the intrinsic value of share meaning.
So, what is the intrinsic value of shares?
The intrinsic value of shares is the predicted or calculated value of a company, stock, currency, or product based on a fundamental study. It considers both tangible and intangible elements.
Actual worth, often known as intrinsic value, is not always the same as market value, and it is also known as the risk-adjusted price a reasonable investor is willing to pay for an investment.
The intrinsic value of shares refers to how much the stock (or any other asset) is worth, even if some investors believe it is worth a lot more or less.
You might believe that determining intrinsic worth is complicated. However, this is not the case. You can use this value not just to evaluate a stock’s intrinsic worth but also to find the finest deals in the market.
Knowing the inherent worth of your investment choice is helpful, especially if you are a value investor looking to acquire stocks or other investments at a steal deal bargain.
What is the formula for calculating the intrinsic value of shares?
The Fundamental Formula for calculating the intrinsic value of shares:
The sum of the present value of all the future cash flows discounted at an acceptable rate is generally considered the fundamental or the intrinsic value of the share of any firm or investment asset.
NPV = [CF/(1+i)^t] – initial investment
Therefore, the most popular technique is similar to the net present value formula, which is as follows:
In which the components have the following meanings –
NPV = Net Present Value.
CF = Cash flow from operations during the period
i = rate of interest
t = refers to the number of periods in a year.
Breaking down the Intrinsic value of share
Value investors can make use of fundamental analysis to calculate the intrinsic value of shares. When employing this strategy, an analyst must examine qualitative and quantitative factors.
Financial statement analysis and the projected intrinsic value of shares are quantitative, whereas the company model, governance, and market characteristics are qualitative.
The asset’s computed intrinsic value of shares is then compared to its market value to see if it is overpriced or undervalued.
Risk Adjusting the Intrinsic value of share
The risk of changing cash flow is a personal one, and it is an amalgamation of art and science. There are two main approaches:
1) Discount Rate
The analyst often utilises a company’s weighted average cost of capital in this technique.
The risk-free rate (derived from the government bond yield) is frequently added to the weighted average cost of capital, coupled with a premium based on the stock’s volatility compounded by an equity risk premium.
The strategy is founded on the fundamental premise that a more volatile stock is a riskier investment. Thus an investor should expect higher returns.
As a result, a greater discount rate is used in this case, lowering the estimated future cash flow value.
2) Certainty Factor
In this procedure, each cash flow is assigned a certainty factor or likelihood, which is then multiplied by the net present value (NPV). This is a technique for reducing the cost of an investment. Because the cash flows are risk-adjusted, this technique uses the risk-free rate as the discount rate.
A government bond, for example, has a guaranteed cash flow, and the discount rate is 7%. As a result, the yield rate and discount rate are equal.
Assume cash flow from a high-growth company with a 50% probability factor; the same discount rate can be applied because the risk associated with the high-risk asset (in this case, the high-growth company) has already been factored in along with the probability number.
Challenges with Intrinsic value of share
One of the challenges with the value is that intrinsic computing is a highly subjective process. The method relies on several assumptions to project the cash flow. As a result, these assumptions change the ultimate net present value.
Another issue is that elements like beta, market risk premium, and so on can be interpreted in various ways while calculating the weighted average cost of capital.
As a result, different investors can arrive at different prices for the same item when utilising the procedure. This distinction arises because everyone has a unique perspective on the future, and there is no means of knowing which number is correct.
Advantages and disadvantages of Intrinsic Value
The advantages and disadvantages of the intrinsic value of shares are as follows:
Pros
Intrinsic value is a factor in determining the worth of an item, an investment, or a business.
Intrinsic value refers to the profit potential of an option contract.
Cons
Calculating a company’s intrinsic worth is subjective because it estimates risk and future cash flows. Because the premium paid and time value is not included in the intrinsic value of an option, it is incomplete.
Why is Intrinsic Value not preferred in Technical Analysis?
Technical analysts dismiss the concept of intrinsic value, despite its many advantages.
Followers of the technical method think that only by analysing past price movements can future market trends be appropriately forecasted.
Given below are the reasons for the following:
1) Intrinsic Value May be Unstable
Intrinsic value is determined based on a company’s current fundamentals, and future fundamentals are a guess based on your calculations.
As a result, it is a fictitious figure which is untrustworthy. Future events may dramatically alter these fundamentals.
For example, if the economy improves or a company buys another company, its sales could skyrocket, and its intrinsic value will rise as a result.
These possibilities, however, cannot be accounted for in advance when calculating intrinsic value.
Technical analysis, on the other hand, is better at forecasting them.
2) Market Value may not approach Intrinsic value sometimes
Another issue with fundamental analysis is that prices may not rise enough in the future to equal intrinsic value.
For example, in our last example, we imagined the stock was currently trading at Rs 100.
According to your relative value study, it might rise to Rs 115.
However, this will only happen if other market participants share your viewpoint. Because only then they will invest in the stock together and drive up the price.
Other investors, on the other hand, may not necessarily share your perspective.
This is especially true with smaller company equities, which are usually considered risky to invest in.
As a result, despite their high potential, seeing a price rise in these stocks may seem unlikely.
3) Intrinsic Value estimation is not possible for all asset classes
The intrinsic value approach’s last problem is that it cannot be applied to all asset classes.
Fundamentals like future dividends, sales revenue, and earnings are important in the case of stocks. As a result, the intrinsic value method can be applied.
On the other hand, markets deal in assets like commodities, metals, and currencies. What is the best way to estimate the fundamentals for these?
How can you predict future revenues or dividends if you invest in gold, for example? Gold is not a corporation that does not generate revenue or pay dividends.
Only technical analysis may be utilised to estimate value in such instances.
Conclusion
To summarise, intrinsic value is an essential factor when evaluating a stock for investment purposes.
There are several methods for determining the reasonable amount, and an investor should use the one most appropriate for the sector and features of the company being reviewed.